তুলা (মধ্যম স্ট্যাপল): India’s largest cash crop and the Bt question revisited
Cotton (Gossypium hirsutum) is the largest non-food cash crop in India by gross value, sustaining roughly 6 million growers across 12 million hectares. The 2024-25 crop year is expected to close near 30 million bales (170 kg each), about 22% of global production, with Gujarat (25%), Maharashtra (22%) and Telangana (18%) the three anchor states. India is also the world’s second-largest cotton consumer behind China, with a domestic textile industry that absorbs roughly 75% of fibre output. The 2025-26 MSP for medium-staple cotton has been notified at ₹7,710 per quintal of seed cotton (Textile Commissioner Order, July 2025), a 6% year-on-year hike that reflects the rising cost of Bt seed, insecticides and labour for hand-picking.
More than 95% of India’s cotton acreage is now planted to Bt hybrids — primarily Bollgard-II (Cry1Ac + Cry2Ab) released in 2006. Bt cotton tripled lint output between 2002 and 2014. But the second decade has been harder: pink bollworm resistance to Bollgard-II is now widespread (CICR survey 2024 confirmed >90% larval survival on Bollgard-II bolls in central Gujarat), and CLCuV (cotton leaf-curl virus) outbreaks in north Indian belts continue to dent yield. The next-generation event — Bollgard-III with Vip3A — has not been commercially approved in India, leaving farmers to manage resistance with IPM, pheromone traps, and frequent insecticide rotation.
Where cotton is grown — central, north and south zones
Gujarat (25% of national production): the central belt’s yield champion. Saurashtra districts (Rajkot, Jamnagar, Junagadh, Bhavnagar) and Kachchh grow cotton on calcareous black cotton soils with bore-well irrigation in patches. Sowing June-15 to July-10 with irrigation; June-25 to July-25 if rainfed. Average yield is roughly 22 quintals of kapas per hectare; the best irrigated farms in Junagadh push past 30 q/ha. Gujarat hosts the largest cotton ginning cluster in India (Rajkot ~450 gins) and the country’s most active cotton mandi (Rajkot APMC).
Maharashtra (22%): the Vidarbha and Marathwada rainfed belt — Yavatmal, Wardha, Amravati, Akola, Buldhana. Rainfed yields are modest at 10-14 q/ha with high year-to-year variance. The 2024 kharif saw widespread pink bollworm damage which cut Vidarbha yield by an estimated 18%. State PSS (Price Support) procurement through CCI became active in November 2024 when modal prices in Yavatmal dropped to ₹7,200/q, below the MSP threshold.
Telangana (18%): Adilabad, Karimnagar, Warangal, Nalgonda. Mostly irrigated through borewell. Yields 18-25 q/ha with high-density planting (HDPS) trials from CICR-Nagpur catching on. The state’s Rythu Bharosa scheme pays a flat ₹7,500/acre to all farmers irrespective of crop, helping cotton growers absorb spray costs.
Andhra Pradesh (6%) & Haryana (6%) & Rajasthan (6%): the northern zone is mostly irrigated, with shorter-duration varieties (160-180 days) to escape October frost. Punjab cotton area has collapsed from 7.5 LH in 2010 to under 2 LH in 2024 because of repeated CLCuV outbreaks and farmer shift to paddy.
Variety landscape — Bt hybrids dominate, non-Bt HDPS niche
Bt cotton hybrid seed is sold under hundreds of brand names but most trace to a small set of events. Bollgard-II remains universal. Public-sector hybrids from ICAR-CICR Nagpur and SAUs are sold to smallholders through state seed corporations: Bt RCH-659 dominates Gujarat-Maharashtra, Bt MRC-7361is the Telangana-AP standard, and the older Bt Brahma is still picked in Punjab-Haryana. For the high-density planting (HDPS) push, non-Bt Suraj at 1.5-1.8 lakh plants/ha (vs hybrid 12,000 plants/ha) is showing promising yields of 18-22 q/ha with substantially lower seed cost — a CICR Nagpur agenda since 2016.
Sowing window, plant geometry and seed rate
Cotton sowing is the single most yield-determining decision. The June 15 - July 15 window across most belts (Gujarat, Maharashtra, Telangana, AP, Haryana) is non-negotiable — every 10-day delay past July 20 cuts yield by roughly 1.5-2 q/ha because boll development shifts into the December cool spell. Seed rate for hybrid Bt is 1.5-2.0 kg/ha at 105 cm × 60 cm spacing (~12,000 plants/ha). For HDPS non-Bt Suraj, seed rate climbs to 12-15 kg/ha at 45 cm × 10 cm (1.5-1.8 lakh plants/ha). Seed treatment with imidacloprid 600FS at 7-10 ml/kg seed protects against sucking pests for the first 30 days — universal in the central zone.
Nutrient management — heavy feeder, late-season K-critical
ICAR-CICR’s blanket recommendation for irrigated hybrid Bt cotton is 120:60:60 kg/ha N:P:K, but recent trials at CICR Coimbatore and Junagadh have flagged late-season potassium deficiency as the largest gap. K demand spikes during boll-filling (90-120 DAS); a top-dressing of 30 kg K2O at first square is now part of the revised package. For rainfed cotton, lower the schedule to 80:40:40 with FYM at 5 t/ha and one supplemental K spray at flowering. Boron and zinc deficiencies are common on the central black soils — 25 kg ZnSO4 + 10 kg borax per hectare as basal on soils with documented deficiency.
Water management — the FAO-56 Kc curve and the 600 mm question
The FAO-56 Kc curve for cotton: Kc-ini 0.35, Kc-mid 1.15, Kc-end 0.65. Total seasonal ETc for a 180-day Junagadh crop is roughly 700 mm. Rainfed cotton in Vidarbha relies entirely on monsoon (~750-900 mm seasonal rainfall) but distribution matters more than total: a Vidarbha cotton crop receives 80% of rainfall in July-August, when the crop actually needs 35% of its seasonal water. The September gap (when boll-filling kicks in) is where 60% of yield losses occur. Drip irrigation under PMKSY-PDMC’s 55% subsidy is increasingly common in Gujarat-Saurashtra, with drip-fertigated cotton routinely hitting 28-32 q/ha — 40% higher than the surface-irrigated baseline.
Pest management — pink bollworm is the existential threat
Pink bollworm (Pectinophora gossypiella) resistance to Bollgard-II is the single biggest entomological challenge in Indian cotton. CICR’s 2024 resistance survey found Bt Cry1Ac LC50 in PBW populations from central Gujarat over 200x the susceptible baseline. IPM is the only sustainable response: pheromone traps at 5-8 per hectare from 45 DAS, pheromone-based mating disruption (PB-Rope on 50,000+ ha in Vidarbha by 2024), and timely picking to remove infested bolls before larval emergence. ETL for PBW: 8% damaged bolls or 8 moths/trap/night. Insecticide rotation across MoA groups (28 chlorantraniliprole, 22A indoxacarb, 5 spinosad) is mandatory; back-to-back applications of the same group accelerate resistance.
Cotton leaf-curl virus (CLCuV): a begomovirus transmitted by whitefly (Bemisia tabaci) — the disease that collapsed Punjab cotton. Tolerant hybrids (Bayer Brahma Plus, Kaveri Jadoo) are partial relief. Whitefly management with insect growth regulators (pyriproxyfen, buprofezin) is critical. Avoid blanket pyrethroid sprays that wipe out whitefly predators and trigger resurgence.
Cost of cultivation and the ₹7,710 question
CACP places cotton C2 cost at ₹6,150/q on the national average (2022-23 crop year). Against MSP ₹7,710/q the C2 margin is 25% — narrower than maize or paddy. But the geography of cost varies wildly: Punjab-Haryana irrigated cotton has C2 of roughly ₹5,400/q (high yield offsets cost), Vidarbha rainfed C2 is ₹6,800/q (low yield), and Telangana drip-fertigated C2 dips to ₹4,800/q (yield premium). The Bt seed price (notified by the Government of India under the Cotton Seed Price Control Order 2018) is currently ₹853 per 450g packet — a meaningful cost line on a 20-acre Maharashtra farm.
For an irrigated Gujarat-Saurashtra Bt RCH-659 plot yielding 25 q/ha at ₹7,500/q mandi rate, gross revenue is ₹1,87,500/ha against a cash cost of ₹65,000/ha — a cash margin of ₹1,22,500/ha (₹49,000/acre). For a Vidarbha rainfed plot yielding 12 q/ha at ₹7,200/q, gross revenue is ₹86,400/ha against a cash cost of ₹38,000/ha — a margin of ₹48,400/ha (₹19,400/acre). The difference between Saurashtra and Vidarbha cotton is the difference between a borewell and the monsoon.
Procurement, ginning and the CCI
The Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) procures at MSP when modal prices in any APMC mandi drop below the notified rate. In 2024-25 CCI is expected to procure 50-70 lakh bales (about 22% of output) — the highest in five years — concentrated in Maharashtra and Telangana where prices stayed below MSP through November 2024. The ginned lint is sold through CCI auctions to mills and exporters. India’s cotton export receded from 8.6 million bales in 2021-22 to 3.5 million bales in 2024-25 because Bangladesh and Vietnam reduced offtake. Domestic spinning mills paid ₹57,000-62,000 per candy (356 kg lint) through Q4 2024-25.
Schemes — beyond MSP
PM-KISAN applies to cotton growers with land records. PMFBYcovers cotton at modest premium (1.5% kharif, 2% rabi) but the cotton claim ratio has been low in recent years because the threshold yield is computed over 5-7 year averages, during which yields were artificially high in the early Bt years. KCCfor cotton is widely subscribed — the ₹7,710 MSP means a 5-acre Vidarbha grower can access a ₹3 lakh KCC limit on the scale-of-finance. Cotton Development Programme (NFSM-Commercial Crops) subsidises HDPS seed and drip in selected districts. Telangana Rythu Bharosa and Maharashtra Namo Shetkari Maha Sanman Nidhi add ₹6,000-15,000/year in unconditional cash transfers.
The climate and the long arc
Indian cotton sits at a turning point. PBW resistance, CLCuV pressure, climate-induced rainfall variance in Vidarbha, and the slow approval of next-generation Bt events make yield gains harder. The CICR roadmap to 2030 emphasises HDPS expansion, drip-fertigation, short-duration varieties (140-day) to escape October rain damage, and the formal commercial release of Bollgard-III (Vip3A) which is currently in confined trials. The farmer’s problem is more immediate: he must manage pink bollworm with rotational chemistry, accept that monsoon variability is the new normal, and grasp drip-fertigation economics under PMKSY-PDMC. The 25-year Bt revolution’s next chapter will be written in the central zone’s agronomy as much as in any biotech lab.